Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 38.051685 45.059133 52.780373 61.889976 72.312821 83.834223 97.500921
2024-11-03 28.460898 37.911682 49.366124 64.139798 82.544339 104.561841 132.722475
2024-11-10 23.467341 34.213444 48.208826 67.481918 93.000996 125.265475 168.717265
2024-11-17 19.934708 31.384562 47.224803 70.246731 102.266802 144.565073 203.870867
2024-11-24 16.655248 28.161365 44.986536 70.657900 107.955211 159.148707 233.464057
2024-12-01 13.517468 24.513362 41.480086 68.595758 109.639574 168.011680 255.489193
2024-12-08 11.562136 22.340849 39.793010 68.849469 114.428458 181.260714 284.169116
2024-12-15 10.127491 20.764307 38.771313 69.892099 120.304558 196.265176 316.066407
2024-12-22 7.912744 17.398853 34.314535 64.832177 116.106780 195.768287 324.806259
2024-12-29 7.118136 16.527335 33.990971 66.542286 122.754837 212.099085 359.700266
2025-01-05 6.109188 15.046759 32.362984 65.776014 125.162005 221.812810 384.767965
2025-01-12 5.970068 15.336521 34.043518 71.025357 138.080488 249.007987 438.658280
2025-01-19 4.689983 13.027551 30.635203 67.007922 135.367187 251.785586 455.789841
2025-01-26 4.214309 12.459929 30.656550 69.552740 144.697489 275.533066 509.109177
2025-02-02 3.884073 12.166307 31.195041 73.147721 156.224643 303.743784 571.474064
2025-02-09 3.542601 11.762341 31.422342 76.110801 166.770032 330.857314 633.427076
2025-02-16 3.077392 10.909771 30.500229 76.551292 172.466920 349.690219 682.112541
2025-02-23 2.531790 9.675592 28.471229 74.342519 172.704849 358.611083 713.871399
2025-03-02 2.199690 8.981007 27.624965 74.614307 177.895842 376.860468 763.049916
2025-03-09 1.951432 8.480126 27.180492 75.731122 184.881618 398.825009 819.973736
2025-03-16 1.486419 7.088035 24.127773 70.309593 177.550982 392.993631 825.616705
2025-03-23 1.346349 6.811964 24.078976 72.142368 185.997031 418.189125 890.109876
2025-03-30 1.143029 6.221829 23.023659 71.321191 188.485991 431.734046 933.235580